Drafting NHL Goaltenders: How to catch a leprechaun

You could make a strong argument that no single person or position is more important to an NHL team's success and organizational stability than the goaltender. Not only is it the most difficult position to scout, project and draft - consider that only 16.7% of goalies drafted today make an impact in the NHL - it’s also the one position that highlights fundamental philosophical differences between how NHL teams believe they should be built.

Without question, some organizations are clearly better than others at drafting NHL calibre goaltenders. Others have managed to remain competitive by identifying and acquiring prospects drafted by other organizations while a few have managed to sign goaltenders that went over-looked in the draft, signing them as free agents.

Strategy over the drafting of goaltenders has always been a topic of much debate and everyone has their own strongly held opinions. Are they worth a first round pick, perhaps even a lottery pick? Can goalies of comparable talent be found in the later rounds of the draft and what, if anything has changed as the number of draft rounds has diminished over the years, especially since the lockout?

I decided to undertake a comprehensive study of more than 650 goaltenders spanning 25 years, from 1985 to 2010 covering 26 NHL drafts. I’ve divided the years into 3 eras, based on the declining number of rounds to see how teams have adjusted. I’ll examine the draft rounds in detail over time to uncover the point where quantity and quality are optimal for today’s NHL, how successful teams have been over the years and how they’re positioned going forward. I’ll also examine how the major feeder leagues have fared providing the NHL with quality goaltenders and break down where the NHL is currently mining for the netminders of tomorrow.

So, what do I consider a “successful” draft pick to be? Everyone has an opinion of course but my criterion is not merely defined by a player who manages to play one NHL game. The criteria for a successful goalie are the same used in the NHL draft study I did this past summer: 80 NHL games played, 40 for 2005+ draft picks. Why 80 games? Goalies get credit towards earning an NHL pension so long as they dress for a game, therefore it’s the relative equivalent to the 160 games needed by skaters to qualify for an NHL pension, regardless if they played in the United States or Canada.

Because most of the 130+ goalies drafted since 2005 are still in the AHL, Europe, Canadian Junior, US minor or college leagues, etc or currently breaking into the NHL, they’ve been left out of the success rate calculations. Goalies that have played enough to qualify will be included in the organisational reports while all goalies drafted between 2005-2010 will be examined for changes in post-lockout drafting strategy after the number of rounds were reduced to 7.

The effects of fewer rounds

Much of the confusion of when goalies should be drafted is based on personal perception, comparing the rounds where NHL calibre goaltenders have been drafted in the past and believing it should be pretty much the same today. Not so. The first step is to examine the impact of fewer rounds on draft strategy over time. To isolate the impact I divided this study into three groups: 11+ rounds from 1985-1994, 9 rounds from 1995-2004 and the post lockout era of 7 rounds which began in 2005:

Percentage of goalies drafted by round

Round	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
1985-94	04.1	07.3	09.8	07.3	11.8	06.5	06.5	07.8	13.9	11.0	09.4	04.5
1995-04	09.6	09.6	11.3	08.9	15.6	14.9	11.7	09.9	08.5
2005-10*	07.5	13.4	13.4	15.7	20.1	16.4	13.4

* Based on past 6 years

Two things stand out. First, while goalies get selected every round, the run on drafting them has typically occurred in the second half of the draft as many teams wait, not unlike those who draft kickers in fantasy football. How long teams can wait has been reduced so the run on goalies, regardless of anything else has generally shifted over time from rounds 9 and 10 to rounds 5-6.

Second, the trend has been shifting from drafting goalies in the second half of the draft to the first half. The current trend post-lockout, 60% into a decade since suggests that while teams are slightly less willing to use a 1st round pick than the decade before, it's still almost double what it was from 1985-1994. Same for the 2nd round.

Fewer rounds, fewer goalies drafted

Relative to the number of teams in the NHL during each era, the average number of goalies being drafted per team each year has been in steady, if slight decline. The average has decreased from 1.09 during the 1985-1994 period to 1.00 spanning 1995-2004 to .85 goalies drafted per team since the lockout. The fewer draft rounds means that today, some teams won't draft a goalie at all in a given year, something that might help explain the bump in undrafted goalies currently on NHL rosters and in their farm systems.

Better to draft a goalie early or late?

Now that we've examined quantity, let's look at where quality has been found over time to get a true sense of how NHL teams have adjusted their draft strategy to fewer draft rounds:

Success rate per round

	85-94			95-04			05-10
Rd	Num	Picks	%	Num	Picks	%	Picks	Trend*
1	8	10	80.0	10	27	37.0	10	14
2	12	18	66.7	7	27	25.9	18	25
3	9	24	37.5	6	32	18.8	18	25
4	3	18	16.7	2	25	8.0	21	29
5	4	29	13.8	7	44	15.9	27	38
6	4	16	25.0	6	42	14.3	22	31
7	1	16	6.3	4	33	12.1	18	25
8	3	19	15.8	3	28	10.7
9	8	34	23.5	2	24	8.3
10	2	27	7.4
11	1	23	4.3
12	0	11	0.0
Total	55	245	22.4	47	282	16.7	134	187

* Ten year forecast

What immediately jumps out is that teams were more than twice as likely (45.7% vs. 22.5%) to draft a quality goalie in the 1st four rounds from 1985-1994 with 37% fewer picks than the 1995-2004 era. Why? Because teams typically waited longer to draft goalies meaning there was more quality available for teams willing to use a higher pick to acquire them. The surge seen in the 9th round from 1985-1994 will be explained later when European goaltenders are studied. Overall however, the success rate fell from 22.4% on average to just 16.7 prior to the lockout.

Quality by round over time

What rounds have typically produced both quantity and quality goaltending over the years? By breaking down the draft years by round, a clear pattern emerges that demonstrates how teams are drafting successful goalies earlier than ever before. In short, the deeper into the draft you go, the further back in time you go to find quality netminders:

Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
1	2006	Washington	Semyon Varlamov*	42
1	2005	Montreal	Carey Price*	163
1	2005	Toronto	Tuukka Rask*	60
1	2003	Pittsburgh	Marc-Andre Fleury*	325
1	2002	Atlanta	Kari Lehtonen*	239
1	2002	Carolina	Cam Ward*	298
1	2001	Columbus	Pascal Leclaire*	173
1	2000	NY Islanders	Rick DiPietro*	295
1	1997	NY Islanders	Roberto Luongo*	636
1	1995	Carolina	Jean-Sebastien Giguere*	510
1	1995	Buffalo	Martin Biron*	472
1	1995	Philadelphia	Brian Boucher*	291
1	1995	Colorado	Marc Denis	349
1	1994	Los Angeles	Jamie Storr	219
1	1994	Toronto	Eric Fichaud	95
1	1994	NY Rangers	Dan Cloutier	351
1	1993	Colorado	Jocelyn Thibault	596
1	1990	Calgary	Trevor Kidd	387
1	1990	New Jersey	Martin Brodeur*	1096
1	1989	Washington	Olaf Kolzig	719
1	1987	Chicago	Jimmy Waite	106
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
2	2006	Washington	Michal Neuvirth*	44
2	2005	Atlanta	Ondrej Pavelec*	82
2	2003	Detroit	Jim Howard*	96
2	2002	Minnesota	Josh Harding*	83
2	2001	Colorado	Peter Budaj*	214
2	2000	Anaheim	Ilya Bryzgalov*	284
2	2000	Dallas	Dan Ellis*	131
2	1999	Florida	Alex Auld*	210
2	1996	Montreal	Mathieu Garon*	254
2	1994	Montreal	Jose Theodore*	559
2	1993	Florida	Kevin Weekes	350
2	1992	Washington	Jim Carey	172
2	1990	Toronto	Felix Potvin	640
2	1989	Washington	Byron Dafoe	415
2	1988	Colorado	Stephane Fiset	390
2	1987	Pittsburgh	Rick Tabaracci	287
2	1987	Los Angeles	Mark Fitzpatrick	329
2	1987	NY Islanders	Jeff Hackett	500
2	1985	New Jersey	Sean Burke	820
2	1985	Carolina	Kay Whitmore	155
2	1985	NY Rangers	Mike Richter	666
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
3	2006	Columbus	Steve Mason*	139
3	2005	Los Angeles	Jonathan Quick*	141
3	2001	Chicago	Craig Anderson*	195
3	2000	Toronto	Mikael Tellqvist	114
3	1999	Calgary	Craig Anderson* - Unsigned	195
3	1999	Pittsburgh	Sebastien Caron	92
3	1998	NY Rangers	Jason Labarbera*	130
3	1995	Pittsburgh	Jean-Sebastien Aubin	218
3	1992	Colorado	Manny Fernandez	325
3	1991	NY Islanders	Jamie McLennan	254
3	1991	Detroit	Chris Osgood*	739
3	1990	New Jersey	Mike Dunham	394
3	1988	Phoenix	Stephane Beauregard	90
3	1988	Philadelphia	Dominic Roussel	205
3	1986	Washington	Jim Hrivnak	85
3	1985	Boston	Bill Ranford	647
3	1985	Phoenix	Daniel Berthiaume	215
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
4	2001	Ottawa	Ray Emery	163
4	1995	San Jose	Vesa Toskala	266
4	1991	NY Islanders	Milan Hnilicka	121
4	1986	Detroit	Tim Cheveldae	340
4	1986	Colorado	Ron Tugnutt	538
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
5	2001	Edmonton	Jussi Markkanen	128
5	2001	Dallas	Mike Smith*	156
5	1999	Buffalo	Ryan Miller*	355
5	1998	Boston	Andrew Raycroft*	260
5	1995	San Jose	Miikka Kiprusoff*	485
5	1995	New Jersey	Chris Mason*	268
5	1995	Colorado	Brent Johnson*	281
5	1994	Dallas	Marty Turco*	529
5	1993	Anaheim	Mikhail Shtalenkov	224
5	1993	NY Islanders	Tommy Salo	526
5	1991	Buffalo	Steve Shields	246
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
6	2001	Atlanta	Pasi Nurminen	125
6	2000	Philadelphia	Roman Cechmanek	212
6	1999	Chicago	Mike Leighton*	103
6	1998	Philadelphia	Antero Niittymaki*	227
6	1997	Colorado	David Aebischer	214
6	1996	Phoenix	Robert Esche	186
6	1993	Pittsburgh	Patrick Lalime*	442
6	1990	Dallas	Roman Turek	328
6	1987	Toronto	Damian Rhodes	309
6	1987	Colorado	Garth Snow	368
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
7	2002	Tampa Bay	Fredrik Norrena	100
7	2001	Los Angeles	Cristobal Huet	272
7	2000	NY Rangers	Henrik Lundqvist*	364
7	1997	NY Rangers	Johan Holmqvist	98
7	1985	St. Louis	Pat Jablonski	128
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
8	2004	Nashville	Pekka Rinne*	132
8	2001	Anaheim	Martin Gerber	226
8	1997	New Jersey	Scott Clemmensen*	98
8	1993	Carolina	Manny Legace	365
8	1991	NY Rangers	Corey Hirsch	108
8	1987	St. Louis	Guy Hebert	491
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
9	2003	Montreal	Jaroslav Halak*	125
9	2003	Ottawa	Brian Elliott*	109
9	1994	Colorado	Tim Thomas*	283
9	1994	Philadelphia	Johan Hedberg*	306
9	1994	San Jose	Evgeni Nabokov	563
9	1994	Montreal	Tomas Vokoun*	599
9	1994	Boston	John Grahame	224
9	1992	Colorado	Steve Passmore	93
9	1992	Phoenix	Nikolai Khabibulin*	717
9	1988	Buffalo	Wade Flaherty	120
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
10	1990	New Jersey	Corey Schwab	147
10	1989	Dallas	Arturs Irbe	568
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
11	1990	Philadelphia	Tommy Soderstrom	156
Rd	Year	Team	Name	GP
12	None	None	None	0

Given that teams now typically draft less than one goalie per year and that the odds of selecting a quality netminder after the 3rd round has fallen to just 12.2% it's easy to understand why so many teams go several years, sometimes even a decade or longer before finding a quality goaltender. It also shows that the majority of teams still waiting until rounds 4, 5 and 6 need to re-think their draft strategy.

When should NHL teams target a goalie?

There's no question it's risky to spend a 1st round pick on a goalie. Using stats from my study of the NHL draft this past summer, the average success rate of a 1st round pick, regardless of position is 65% vs. 37% for goalies drafted in the decade before the lockout. Unless a team has a major organizational need or it's a relatively weak draft year for skaters, drafting goaltenders in the 1st round is a risky endeavour, even more so with a lottery pick.

The sweet spot now appears to be the 2nd round. The success rate for skaters drafted in the 2nd round drops to 27% vs. 25.9% for goalies drafted between 1995-2004. Given that teams typically select just one netminder, the 2nd round appears to be the best spot where the risk is comparable to all other positions.

Feeding the NHL draft - Who's providing the prospects?

This study wouldn't be complete without a hard look at the leagues primarily responsible for providing the NHL with its goaltending prospects. I've broken down Europe, the OHL, WHL, QMJHL and assorted North American leagues and examined how each has done, over time producing NHL draft picks:

1985-1994: Who's providing the prospects

Rd	Picks	NHL	EUR	NHL	OHL	NHL	WHL	NHL	QMJHL	NHL	US/CAN	NHL
1	10	8	1	0	2	2	2	2	4	4	1	0
2	18	12	0	0	9	5	4	2	3	3	2	2
3	24	9	1	0	7	0	5	3	7	4	4	2
4	18	3	1	1	6	1	3	1	1	0	7	0
5	29	4	3	1	5	0	4	0	6	0	11	3
6	16	4	2	1	1	0	1	0	2	1	10	2
7	16	1	1	0	4	0	1	0	1	0	9	1
8	19	3	2	0	4	1	2	1	1	0	10	1
9	34	8	9	4	2	0	4	2	1	0	18	2
10	27	1	4	0	4	0	3	1	3	0	13	0
11	23	1	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	18	0
12	11	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	0
Total	245	55	29	9	44	9	30	12	31	12	111	13
%		22.4	11.8	31.0	18.0	20.5	12.2	40.0	12.7	38.7	45.3	11.7

Of the 29 European goalies drafted between 1985-1994, a third of them were drafted in the 9th round, half of those making the NHL. Even though Europeans only totalled 11.8% of all goaltenders drafted, they produced 31% of all successful NHL netminders, trailing only the WHL and QMJHL's contribution. No wonder Europe drew significant attention after 1994. The various other North American leagues were primarily only mined in the later rounds and even though their failure rate was a league-worst 88% they still managed to produce 13 goaltenders, more than any other league.

1995-2004: Who's providing the prospects

Rd	Picks	NHL	EUR	NHL	OHL	NHL	WHL	NHL	QMJHL	NHL	US/CAN	NHL
1	27	10	5	1	4	0	5	2	9	6	4	1
2	27	7	4	1	5	2	6	1	8	1	4	2
3	32	6	10	1	7	2	8	1	5	2	2	0
4	25	2	6	1	7	1	5	0	5	0	2	0
5	44	7	11	2	9	3	9	1	5	0	10	1
6	42	6	12	4	6	2	7	0	6	0	11	0
7	33	4	10	4	8	0	4	0	1	0	10	0
8	28	3	10	2	2	0	0	0	5	0	11	1
9	24	2	5	1	5	0	3	0	2	0	9	1
Total	282	47	73	17	53	10	47	5	46	9	63	6
%		16.7	25.9	23.3	18.8	18.9	16.7	10.6	16.3	19.6	22.3	9.5

Duplication, the ultimate compliment. Once NHL teams realized others were having success in Europe drafting goalies, the flood gates opened. During the era of 1995-2004, NHL teams drafted more Europeans than any other league, increasing the number 2.5 times from 29 to 73. Despite a very poor showing in the first 4 rounds, Europe still produced more NHL goaltenders than any other league. Of the 25 European netminders drafted over the first 4 rounds, 10 were from Finland with just 2 making it; Kari Lehtonen and Vesa Toskala which suggests Finland was being over-drafted in the Euro gold rush.

2005-2010: Who's providing the prospects

Rd	Picks	EUR	OHL	WHL	QMJHL	US/CAN
1	10	3	2	3	1	1
2	18	7	3	3	4	1
3	18	4	4	4	1	5
4	21	6	3	2	4	5
5	27	4	7	5	4	7
6	22	4	6	1	2	8
7	18	6	0	3	1	7
Total	134	34	25	21	17	37
%		25.4	18.7	15.7	12.7	27.6

Post-lockout, Europe still provides 25% of all goalies drafted by the NHL. The QMJHL has seen its percentage of NHL calibre goaltenders decline from 38.7% to 19.6% while the WHL has seen its number of quality goalies drop to 10.6%. The WHL decline is position specific however as the league overall is still very strong producing both quality and quantity at other positions.

The QMJHL decline however is reflective of a league-wide problem as there's been a significant drop in quality and quantity across the board compared to the previous decade. Most surprisingly, of the 41 goaltenders drafted from the QMJHL after the 3rd round since 1985, only one succeeded in the NHL, Patrick Lalime who was drafted in the 6th round back in 1993... 17 years ago.

Who's producing Europe's best?

A number of factors are in play but there's no question the lack of a IIHF player transfer agreement has had an impact on which countries NHL teams are going to, or more importantly, avoiding. Since the lockout, Sweden and Finland now produce a combined 64.7% of all goaltenders drafted from Europe. That's up from 49.9% in 1995-2004 and 44.8% from 1985-1994. They are also the two countries currently with the best relations with the NHL:

2005-10				1995-04			1985-94
Country	Picks	Trend	%	Country	Picks	%	Country	Picks	%
Sweden	12	17	35.3	Sweden	11	14.9	Sweden	10	34.5
Finland	10	14	29.4	Finland	24	32.4	Finland	3	10.3
Czech*	4	6	11.8	Czech*	12	16.2	Czech*	5	17.2
Russia	4	6	11.8	Russia	11	14.9	Russia	7	24.1
Germany	2	3	5.9	Germany	5	6.8	Germany	1	3.4
Swiss	1	1	2.9	Swiss	4	5.4	Swiss	2	6.9
Slovakia*	0	0	0.0	Slovakia*	5	6.8	Slovakia*	0	0.0
Ukraine	0	0	0.0	Ukraine	1	1.4	Ukraine	0	0.0
Japan	0	0	0.0	Japan	1	1.4	Japan	0	0.0
Denmark	1	1	2.9	Denmark	0	0.0	Denmark	0	0.0
Latvia	0	0	0.0	Latvia	0	0.0	Latvia	1	3.4
	34	48			74			29

* The Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic became two separate countries in 1993

My study on the NHL's exodus from Europe explains the decline in continental Europe in detail though casual observers and league presidents would like everyone to believe it's just due to enrollment and financial issues, issues that are global concerns for the sport. The reality is that NHL teams, with just 7 draft picks are no longer willing to use them on players who aren't committed to playing in North America. Once a new PTA is in place, there will be more NHL teams willing to take a chance.

NHL Team reports - Past vs. present

To fully understand which teams have been more committed to drafting goaltenders, it's also important to look at how each are positioned today. Which teams have adjusted their drafting strategy for the post-lockout era of a 7 round draft? Are they still drafting late when all the evidence suggests the low frequency of drafting netminders combined with the low success rate of recent years in those late rounds means they'll likely go a decade or more before they luck into a quality player?

Below is a breakdown on the draft history of each NHL team. How many goalies they've selected over 26 draft years and a list of their goalies, in bold, who've managed to have some measure of success, in descending order from the year they were drafted. Also included is a current list of drafted netminders, in italics that were drafted by each organization who may still have a chance to succeed. Prospects that have been traded away are indicated:

ANAHEIM - 15/18	Year	Rd	#	GP
Martin Gerber	2001	8	232	228
Ilya Bryzgalov*	2000	2	44	284
Mikhail Shtalenkov	1993	5	108	224
Igor Bobkov	2009	3	76	0
Marco Cousineau	2008	3	83	0
Sebastian Stefaniszin	2007	4	98	0
Mattias Modig (Traded to PIT)	2007	4	121	0
Jean-Philippe Levasseur	2005	7	197	0
ATLANTA - 11/12	Year	Rd	#	GP
Ondrej Pavelec*	2005	2	41	82
Kari Lehtonen*	2002	1	2	239
Pasi Nurminen	2001	6	189	125
Fredrik Petterson-Wentzel	2010	5	128	0
Edward Pasquale	2009	4	117	0
Chris Carrozzi	2008	6	154	0
Alex Kangas	2006	5	135	0
BOSTON - 22/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Andrew Raycroft*	1998	5	135	260
John Grahame	1994	9	229	224
Bill Ranford	1985	3	52	647
Zane Gothberg	2010	6	165	0
Michael Hutchinson	2008	3	77	0
BUFFALO - 24/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Ryan Miller*	1999	5	138	355
Martin Biron*	1995	1	16	472
Steve Shields	1991	5	101	246
Wade Flaherty	1988	9	181	120
Connor Knapp	2009	6	164	0
Bradley Eidsness	2007	5	139	0
Nick Eno	2007	7	187	0
Jhonas Enroth	2006	2	46	1
CALGARY - 20/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Trevor Kidd	1990	1	11	387
Craig Anderson* Unsigned	1999	3	77	195
Joni Ortio	2009	6	171	0
Leland Irving	2006	1	26	0
Matt Keetley	2005	5	158	1
CAROLINA - 22/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Cam Ward*	2002	1	25	298
Jean-Sebastien Giguere*	1995	1	13	510
Manny Legace	1993	8	188	365
Kay Whitmore	1985	2	26	155
Frederik Andersen	2010	7	187	0
Mike Murphy	2008	6	165	0
Justin Peters*	2004	2	38	16
CHICAGO - 22/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Craig Anderson*	2001	3	73	195
Mike Leighton*	1999	6	165	103
Jimmy Waite	1987	1	8	106
Kent Simpson	2010	2	58	0
Mac Carruth	2010	7	191	0
Corey Crawford*	2003	2	52	23
COLORADO - 36/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Peter Budaj*	2001	2	63	214
David Aebischer	1997	6	161	214
Marc Denis	1995	1	25	349
Brent Johnson*	1995	5	129	281
Tim Thomas*	1994	9	217	283
Jocelyn Thibault	1993	1	10	596
Manny Fernandez	1992	3	52	325
Steve Passmore	1992	9	196	93
Stephane Fiset	1988	2	24	390
Garth Snow	1987	6	114	368
Ron Tugnutt	1986	4	81	538
Calvin Pickard	2010	2	49	0
Sami Aittokallio	2010	4	107	0
Kieran Millan	2009	5	124	0
Brandon Maxwell	2009	6	154	0
Trevor Cann	2007	2	49	0
Kent Patterson	2007	4	113	0
COLUMBUS - 8/11	Year	Rd	#	GP
Steve Mason*	2006	3	69	139
Pascal Leclaire*	2001	1	8	173
Mathieu Corbeil-Theriault	2010	4	102	0
Martin Ouellette	2010	7	184	0
Allen York	2007	6	158	0
DALLAS - 26/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Mike Smith*	2001	5	161	156
Dan Ellis*	2000	2	60	131
Marty Turco*	1994	5	124	529
Roman Turek	1990	6	113	328
Arturs Irbe	1989	10	196	568
Jack Campbell	2010	1	11	0
Tyler Beskorowany	2008	2	59	0
Richard Bachman	2006	4	120	0
DETROIT - 25/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Jim Howard*	2003	2	64	96
Chris Osgood*	1991	3	54	739
Tim Cheveldae	1986	4	64	340
Petr Mrazek	2010	5	141	0
Thomas McCollum	2008	1	30	0
Daniel Larsson	2006	3	92	0
EDMONTON - 27/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Jussi Markkanen	2001	5	133	128
Tyler Bunz	2010	5	121	0
Olivier Roy	2009	5	133	0
Bryan Pitton	2006	5	133	0
Devan Dubnyk*	2004	1	14	29
FLORIDA - 17/18	Year	Rd	#	GP
Kevin Weekes	1993	2	41	350
Alex Auld*	1999	2	40	210
Sam Brittain	2010	4	92	0
Jacob Markstrom	2008	2	31	0
Sergei Gayduchenko	2007	7	202	0
Marc Cheverie	2006	7	193	0
Tyler Plante	2005	2	32	0
LOS ANGELES - 31/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Jonathan Quick*	2005	3	72	141
Cristobal Huet	2001	7	214	272
Jamie Storr	1994	1	7	219
Mark Fitzpatrick	1987	2	27	329
Jean-Francois Berube	2009	4	95	0
Jonathan Bernier*	2006	1	11	14
Jeff Zatkoff	2006	3	74	0
MINNESOTA - 9/11	Year	Rd	#	GP
Josh Harding*	2002	2	38	83
Johan Gustafsson	2010	6	159	0
Matt Hackett	2009	3	77	0
Darcy Kuemper	2009	6	161	0
Anton Khudobin	2004	7	206	2
MONTREAL - 21/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Carey Price*	2005	1	5	163
Jaroslav Halak*	2003	9	271	125
Mathieu Garon*	1996	2	44	254
Jose Theodore*	1994	2	44	559
Tomas Vokoun*	1994	9	226	599
NASHVILLE - 15/13	Year	Rd	#	GP
Pekka Rinne*	2004	8	258	132
Chet Pickard	2008	1	18	0
Anders Lindback*	2008	7	207	14
Jeremy Smith	2007	2	54	0
Atte Engren	2007	7	204	0
Mark Dekanich	2006	5	146	0
NEW JERSEY - 24/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Scott Clemmensen*	1997	8	215	98
Chris Mason*	1995	5	122	268
Martin Brodeur*	1990	1	20	1096
Mike Dunham	1990	3	53	394
Corey Schwab	1990	10	200	147
Sean Burke	1985	2	24	820
Scott Wedgewood	2010	3	84	0
Maxime Clermont	2010	6	174	0
Jeff Frazee	2005	2	38	0
NY ISLANDERS - 27/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Rick DiPietro*	2000	1	1	295
Roberto Luongo*	1997	1	4	636
Tommy Salo	1993	5	118	526
Jamie McLennan	1991	3	48	254
Milan Hnilicka	1991	4	70	121
Jeff Hackett	1987	2	34	500
Cody Rosen	2010	7	185	0
Mikko Koskinen	2009	2	31	0
Anders Nilsson	2009	3	62	0
Kevin Poulin	2008	5	126	0
Jase Weslosky	2006	4	108	0
Stefan Ridderwall	2006	6	173	0
NY RANGERS - 23/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Henrik Lundqvist*	2000	7	205	364
Jason Labarbera*	1998	3	66	130
Johan Holmqvist	1997	7	175	98
Dan Cloutier	1994	1	26	351
Corey Hirsch	1991	8	169	108
Mike Richter	1985	2	28	666
Scott Stajcer	2009	5	140	0
OTTAWA - 15/19	Year	Rd	#	GP
Brian Elliott*	2003	9	291	109
Ray Emery	2001	4	99	163
Robin Lehner	2009	2	46	0
PHILADELPHIA - 33/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Roman Cechmanek	2000	6	171	212
Antero Niittymaki*	1998	6	168	227
Brian Boucher*	1995	1	22	291
Johan Hedberg*	1994	9	218	306
Tommy Soderstrom	1990	11	214	156
Dominic Roussel	1988	3	63	205
Adam Morrison	2009	3	81	0
Nicola Riopel	2009	5	142	0
Joacim Eriksson	2008	7	196	0
Brad Phillips	2007	7	182	0
Jakub Kovar	2006	4	109	0
PHOENIX - 28/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Robert Esche	1996	6	139	186
Nikolai Khabibulin*	1992	9	204	717
Stephane Beauregard	1988	3	52	90
Daniel Berthiaume	1985	3	60	215
Mark Visentin	2010	1	27	0
Mike Lee	2009	3	91	0
Joel Gistedt	2007	2	36	0
Scott Darling	2007	6	153	0
Brett Bennett	2006	5	130	0
PITTSBURGH - 27/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Marc-Andre Fleury*	2003	1	1	325
Sebastien Caron	1999	3	86	92
Jean-Sebastien Aubin	1995	3	76	218
Patrick Lalime*	1993	6	156	442
Rick Tabaracci	1987	2	26	287
Alexandre Pechurskiy	2008	5	150	1
Patrick Killeen	2008	6	180	0
Chad Johnson (Traded to NYR)	2006	5	125	5
SAN JOSE - 22/20	Year	Rd	#	GP
Vesa Toskala	1995	4	90	266
Miikka Kiprusoff*	1995	5	116	485
Evgeni Nabokov	1994	9	219	563
Harri Sateri	2008	4	106	0
Timo Pielmeier (Traded to ANA)	2007	3	83	0
Tyson Sexsmith	2007	3	91	0
Alex Stalock	2005	4	112	0
Thomas Greiss	2004	3	94	19
ST. LOUIS - 24/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Guy Hebert	1987	8	159	491
Pat Jablonski	1985	7	138	128
Jake Allen	2008	2	34	0
Paul Karpowich	2008	7	185	0
Reto Berra	2006	4	106	0
Ben Bishop	2005	3	85	6
TAMPA BAY - 19/19	Year	Rd	#	GP
Fredrik Norrena	2002	7	213	100
Michael Zador	2009	5	148	0
Jaroslav Janus	2009	6	162	0
Dustin Tokarski	2008	5	122	2
Riku Helenius	2006	1	15	1
TORONTO - 19/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Tuukka Rask*	2005	1	21	60
Mikael Tellqvist	2000	3	70	114
Eric Fichaud	1994	1	16	95
Felix Potvin	1990	2	31	640
Damian Rhodes	1987	6	112	309
Grant Rollheiser	2008	6	158	0
James Reimer	2006	4	99	0
Justin Pogge (Traded to CAR)	2004	3	90	7
VANCOUVER - 25/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
NONE	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Iilahti	2010	6	175	0
Joe Cannata	2009	6	173	0
Cory Schneider*	2004	1	26	17
WASHINGTON - 23/26	Year	Rd	#	GP
Semyon Varlamov*	2006	1	23	42
Michal Neuvirth*	2006	2	34	44
Jim Carey	1992	2	32	172
Olaf Kolzig	1989	1	19	719
Byron Dafoe	1989	2	35	415
Jim Hrivnak	1986	3	61	85
Philipp Grubauer	2010	4	112	0
Braden Holtby	2008	4	93	0

For the most part, it's not for lack of trying that many teams struggle badly to draft an NHL calibre goaltender. That said, the teams least committed to drafting goalies at all are 1. Toronto 2. Calgary and 3. Ottawa, not just for the low number of draft picks used on netminders over the years but the weak pool of prospects in their systems today, a fact that suggests trades and free agents are a core belief in their organizational philosophy.

The worst drafting teams overall are 1. Vancouver 2. Edmonton 3. St. Louis 4. Calgary and 5. Tampa Bay, which by default means they must resort to trades and free agents. As shocked as I am to see so many Canadian teams struggle to find or in the case of some, not even try to find goaltenders, the Vancouver Canucks are easily the worst.

Since 1985, the Canucks haven't produced a single drafted goalie who went on to play 80 NHL games. To find the last one who did, you'd have to go back almost 30 years to Wendell Young, drafted in 1981 who managed to play 187 NHL games though just 30 with Vancouver.

If not for Jussi Markkanen's 128 games played, the Edmonton Oilers would also need to go back to 1981 for the last time a drafted goaltender played just 80 games. Fellow by the name of Grant Fuhr. The St. Louis Blues haven't produced a goalie since 1987 when they drafted Guy Hebert while Calgary hasn't produced anything since Trevor Kidd was selected in 1990. Tampa Bay drafted Fredrik Norrena in 2002 who's 100 NHL games played is the best goaltender the Lightning has ever produced in the 19 years they've been drafting prospects.

The Carey Price argument

Media pundits tend to believe NHL teams should draft goalies based on immediate needs and clearly, some NHL teams share that belief. Unfortunately that doesn't apply to goaltenders who typically take upwards of 5 years to become starting netminders in the NHL.

When the Montreal Canadiens were bashed in the media for drafting Carey Price, it wasn't because Gilbert Brule was the first alternative pick mentioned, it was because of their depth in goal at the time: Jose Theodore, Cristobal Huet and Yann Danis. Today, just as Carey Price has established himself only Thoedore remains in the NHL, a backup with the Minnesota Wild.

Some may argue when you have a money goalie like Marty Brodeur has been over the years, you don't need to waste high draft picks on other goalies. What many don't realize is that twice since drafting Brodeur in 1990, the New Jersey Devils used 1st round picks on a netminder.

Smart teams who have a history of drafting quality goaltenders know it takes years and requires great patience to scout, project, draft and develop NHL calibre netminders. And as this study shows, it takes years of drafting goalies until that quality emerges and that waiting until the late rounds to draft them is no longer a recipe for success.